Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 791 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–27%.

Safest bet that day DL 791 JFK 08:30 → PHX 10:49 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AA 819 JFK 19:15 → PHX 21:32 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 791 Delta Flight history →	JFK 08:30	PHX 10:49	12%	3%	0.8%	83%
AA 2369 American Flight history →	JFK 07:02	PHX 09:18	14%	3%	1.1%	88%
AA 1186 American Flight history →	JFK 09:15	PHX 11:22	16%	4%	1.1%	76%
AA 2829 American Flight history →	JFK 12:29	PHX 14:43	17%	5%	1.1%	82%
B6 135 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 10:09	PHX 12:24	21%	5%	1.0%	69%
DL 798 Delta Flight history →	JFK 18:35	PHX 21:08	21%	7%	0.9%	73%
AA 2606 American	JFK 17:22	PHX 19:40	26%	7%	1.1%	no record
AA 819 American	JFK 19:15	PHX 21:32	27%	7%	1.1%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	JFK 07:22 → SLC 10:30DL 892	50m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:20 → PHX 12:01DL 1431	7h 39m	83%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON