Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, B6 1128 at 23:06, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


B6 1128 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 23:06	PVD 00:14	22%	8%	1.1%	68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Providence on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286	1h 36m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → PVD 12:34DL 2147	6h 34m	97%	87%
American Details →	JFK 06:30 → DCA 07:54AA 4671 · flown by Republic	51m Washington	DCA 08:45 → PVD 10:31AA 5619 · flown by PSA	4h 01m	92%	86%
Delta Details →	JFK 08:40 → ATL 11:23DL 2227	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 14:02 → PVD 16:29DL 2314	7h 49m	97%	84%
American Details →	JFK 07:59 → CLT 10:07AA 1444	3h 41m Charlotte	CLT 13:48 → PVD 15:59AA 2679	8h 00m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	JFK 07:15 → DTW 09:23DL 5080 · flown by Endeavor	1h 03m Detroit	DTW 10:26 → PVD 12:32DL 3723 · flown by SkyWest	5h 17m	88%	77%
Delta Details →	JFK 15:41 → ATL 18:34DL 1480	1h 41m Atlanta	ATL 20:15 → PVD 22:46DL 2064	7h 05m	90%	70%
JetBlue Details →	JFK 10:09 → MCO 12:55B6 183	1h 11m Orlando	MCO 14:06 → PVD 17:03B6 1075	6h 54m	85%	52%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlue Details →	JFK 16:41 → FLL 19:49B6 1201	46m Fort Lauderdale	FLL 20:35 → PVD 23:45B6 1196	7h 04m	35%	23%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON