Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: DL 2320 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 29%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 2320 Delta Flight history →	JFK 07:30	RSW 10:41	14%	3%	4.1%	89%
B6 2129 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 11:37	RSW 14:50	29%	9%	2.8%	65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Myers on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JFK 07:15 → MSP 09:25DL 2390	3h 25m Minneapolis	MSP 12:50 → RSW 17:18DL 2219	10h 03m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286	3h 20m Atlanta	ATL 11:49 → RSW 13:36DL 1153	7h 36m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	JFK 08:54 → DTW 10:52DL 5080 · flown by Endeavor	3h 36m Detroit	DTW 14:28 → RSW 17:22DL 1225	8h 28m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	JFK 08:40 → ATL 11:23DL 2227	3h 36m Atlanta	ATL 14:59 → RSW 16:44DL 1379	8h 04m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:10 → ATL 13:43DL 1029	3h 24m Atlanta	ATL 17:07 → RSW 18:55DL 1124	7h 45m	97%	74%
Delta Details →	JFK 13:35 → ATL 16:19DL 2342	3h 09m Atlanta	ATL 19:28 → RSW 21:13DL 1736	7h 38m	97%	70%
American Details →	JFK 07:59 → CLT 10:07AA 1444	2h 08m Charlotte	CLT 12:15 → RSW 14:14AA 2018	6h 15m	94%	69%
Delta Details →	JFK 17:50 → ATL 20:13DL 2293	2h 27m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → RSW 00:23 +1DL 1217	6h 33m	91%	68%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	JFK 15:41 → ATL 18:34DL 1480	54m Atlanta	ATL 19:28 → RSW 21:13DL 1736	5h 32m	73%	53%
Delta Details →	JFK 13:35 → ATL 16:19DL 2342	48m Atlanta	ATL 17:07 → RSW 18:55DL 1124	5h 20m	67%	51%
American Details →	JFK 14:42 → DFW 17:44AA 1953	1h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:51 → RSW 22:38AA 1267	7h 56m	73%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON