Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 683 at 08:40 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–31%.

Safest bet that day DL 683 JFK 08:40 → SAN 11:32 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest DL 685 JFK 18:19 → SAN 21:00 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 683 Delta Flight history →	JFK 08:40	SAN 11:32	17%	3%	0.8%	82%
B6 189 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 07:45	SAN 10:34	19%	5%	1.1%	90%
AS 35 Alaska Flight history →	JFK 11:30	SAN 14:27	20%	4%	0.8%	77%
B6 1189 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 15:59	SAN 19:01	30%	8%	1.2%	82%worse than usual
DL 685 Delta Flight history →	JFK 18:19	SAN 21:00	31%	7%	0.9%	75%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	JFK 08:54 → DTW 10:52DL 5080 · flown by Endeavor	1h 39m Detroit	DTW 12:31 → SAN 14:14DL 761	8h 20m	95%	74%
Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286	1h 33m Atlanta	ATL 10:02 → SAN 11:25DL 843	8h 25m	96%	73%
American Details →	JFK 07:02 → PHX 09:18AA 2369	1h 22m Phoenix	PHX 10:40 → SAN 12:11AA 2122	8h 09m	90%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON