Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Detroit, leaving 08:54, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching San Antonio on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 1166 Delta Flight history →	JFK 08:30	SAT 11:42	14%	3%	0.8%	90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286	3h 46m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → SAT 13:38DL 1408	8h 38m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:14 → SLC 14:21DL 917	2h 59m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:20 → SAT 21:08DL 2797	10h 54m	99%	82%
American Details →	JFK 07:02 → PHX 09:18AA 2369	3h 05m Phoenix	PHX 12:23 → SAT 16:47AA 570	10h 45m	96%	78%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:10 → ATL 13:43DL 1029	3h 16m Atlanta	ATL 16:59 → SAT 18:29DL 1465	8h 19m	97%	77%
Delta Details →	JFK 08:40 → ATL 11:23DL 2227	3h 17m Atlanta	ATL 14:40 → SAT 16:05DL 2009	8h 25m	97%	77%
Delta Details →	JFK 08:54 → DTW 10:52DL 5080 · flown by Endeavor	58m Detroit	DTW 11:50 → SAT 13:59DL 2458	6h 05m	86%	73%
American Details →	JFK 05:59 → CLT 07:57AA 2643	50m Charlotte	CLT 08:47 → SAT 10:47AA 2889	5h 48m	87%	72%
Delta Details →	JFK 15:41 → ATL 18:34DL 1480	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 21:55 → SAT 23:21DL 1508	8h 40m	95%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	JFK 14:42 → DFW 17:44AA 1953	1h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:46 → SAT 20:01AA 2368	6h 19m	71%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON