Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 16 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 76 at 07:13 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 76 JFK 07:13 → SFO 10:24 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AS 39 JFK 19:01 → SFO 22:03 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 76 American Flight history →	JFK 07:13	SFO 10:24	11%	3%	1.2%	90%
DL 668 Delta Flight history →	JFK 07:00	SFO 10:15	12%	4%	0.7%	74%
DL 669 Delta Flight history →	JFK 09:00	SFO 12:19	14%	4%	0.7%	74%
B6 15 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 07:29	SFO 10:43	14%	4%	0.9%	87%
B6 215 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 10:30	SFO 14:08	14%	5%	0.8%	78%
AA 149 American Flight history →	JFK 11:12	SFO 14:21	16%	4%	1.0%	60%
AS 41 Alaska Flight history →	JFK 11:30	SFO 14:50	17%	5%	0.9%	64%
AA 15 American Flight history →	JFK 16:30	SFO 20:05	20%	7%	1.2%	75%
DL 363 Delta Flight history →	JFK 12:50	SFO 16:03	20%	5%	0.7%	73%
AA 177 American Flight history →	JFK 21:30	SFO 00:59	20%	6%	1.1%	66%
B6 515 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 20:59	SFO 00:38	21%	9%	1.0%	65%
DL 365 Delta Flight history →	JFK 16:36	SFO 19:49	28%	8%	0.7%	67%
AS 32 Alaska	JFK 16:44	SFO 19:45	28%	9%	0.9%	no record
B6 415 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 17:05	SFO 20:23	29%	10%	0.9%	67%
DL 667 Delta Flight history →	JFK 19:15	SFO 22:55	31%	9%	0.7%	62%
AS 39 Alaska Flight history →	JFK 19:01	SFO 22:03	33%	9%	0.8%	81%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	JFK 07:15 → MSP 09:25DL 2390	1h 35m Minneapolis	MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074	8h 54m	95%	80%
Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286	1h 11m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → SFO 11:33DL 672	8h 33m	94%	74%
American Details →	JFK 06:00 → LAX 09:01AA 171	51m Los Angeles	LAX 09:52 → SFO 11:36AA 6277 · flown by SkyWest	8h 36m	85%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON