tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via LAX, leaving 06:53, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching San Jose on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → JFK 06:53 → LAX 09:38DL 742 3h 19m Los Angeles LAX 12:57 → SJC 14:12DL 3842 · flown by SkyWest 10h 19m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → JFK 07:02 → PHX 09:18AA 2369 1h 51m Phoenix PHX 11:09 → SJC 13:15AA 3940 · flown by Envoy 9h 13m 93% 83%
DeltaDetails → JFK 14:59 → LAX 17:44DL 771 3h 00m Los Angeles LAX 20:44 → SJC 22:05DL 1420 10h 06m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286 1h 14m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809 8h 30m 95% 81%
DeltaDetails → JFK 07:22 → SLC 10:30DL 892 1h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254 8h 13m 94% 81%
DeltaDetails → JFK 11:14 → SLC 14:21DL 917 3h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 17:31 → SJC 18:31DL 1172 10h 17m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → JFK 11:35 → MSP 13:50DL 2414 1h 40m Minneapolis MSP 15:30 → SJC 17:34DL 2087 8h 59m 94% 80%
DeltaDetails → JFK 11:30 → SEA 14:50DL 1719 3h 00m Seattle SEA 17:50 → SJC 20:14DL 4100 · flown by SkyWest 11h 44m 96% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON