Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1877 at 08:14 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–33%.

Safest bet that day DL 1877 JFK 08:14 → SJU 12:04 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest B6 803 JFK 16:30 → SJU 20:38 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1877 Delta Flight history →	JFK 08:14	SJU 12:04	14%	3%	0.8%	87%
DL 1859 Delta Flight history →	JFK 19:29	SJU 23:53	20%	7%	0.8%	70%
B6 503 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 10:00	SJU 14:14	25%	7%	0.8%	72%
B6 1603 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 13:00	SJU 16:57	28%	10%	1.1%	77%
B6 803 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 16:30	SJU 20:38	33%	11%	0.9%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON