Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 892 at 07:22 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–32%.

Safest bet that day DL 892 JFK 07:22 → SLC 10:30 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest B6 71 JFK 18:19 → SLC 21:49 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 892 Delta Flight history →	JFK 07:22	SLC 10:30	11%	2%	0.6%	88%
DL 917 Delta Flight history →	JFK 11:14	SLC 14:21	16%	3%	0.6%	83%
DL 887 Delta Flight history →	JFK 16:56	SLC 20:26	18%	4%	0.6%	80%
DL 863 Delta Flight history →	JFK 18:00	SLC 21:39	22%	5%	0.6%	75%
B6 71 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 18:19	SLC 21:49	32%	11%	1.0%	73%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	JFK 16:50 → DTW 18:47DL 2443	1h 33m Detroit	DTW 20:20 → SLC 22:15DL 2117	7h 25m	89%	73%
Delta Details →	JFK 15:05 → DCA 16:41DL 5713 · flown by Republic	1h 04m Washington	DCA 17:45 → SLC 20:41DL 820	7h 36m	84%	72%
Delta Details →	JFK 14:20 → CVG 16:51DL 5012 · flown by Endeavor	54m Hebron	CVG 17:45 → SLC 19:30DL 2149	7h 10m	77%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON