Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 07:15, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Sacramento on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


B6 161 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 18:40	SMF 22:10	32%	14%	1.1%	61%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	JFK 15:40 → LAX 18:48AA 341	3h 31m Los Angeles	LAX 22:19 → SMF 23:55AA 4908 · flown by SkyWest	11h 15m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	JFK 07:15 → MSP 09:25DL 2390	59m Minneapolis	MSP 10:24 → SMF 12:09DL 1701	7h 54m	92%	82%
Delta Details →	JFK 07:22 → SLC 10:30DL 892	1h 05m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423	7h 54m	93%	80%
Alaska Details →	JFK 10:28 → PDX 13:22AS 19	1h 41m Portland	PDX 15:03 → SMF 16:43AS 433	9h 15m	95%	80%
Alaska Details →	JFK 11:30 → SAN 14:27AS 35	3h 26m San Diego	SAN 17:53 → SMF 19:40AS 3410 · flown by SkyWest	11h 10m	99%	75%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:30 → SEA 14:50DL 1719	2h 10m Seattle	SEA 17:00 → SMF 18:57DL 4043 · flown by SkyWest	10h 27m	95%	75%
Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286	47m Atlanta	ATL 09:16 → SMF 11:00DL 904	8h 00m	86%	73%
Delta Details →	JFK 16:56 → SLC 20:26DL 887	1h 04m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:30 → SMF 22:10DL 1582	8h 14m	85%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	JFK 18:10 → LAX 21:28AA 302	51m Los Angeles	LAX 22:19 → SMF 23:55AA 4908 · flown by SkyWest	8h 45m	69%	60%
American Details →	JFK 18:43 → DFW 21:26AA 606	1h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:30 → SMF 23:59AA 509	8h 16m	66%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON