Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: American via Phoenix, leaving 07:02, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 52% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 403 Delta Flight history →	JFK 07:35	SNA 10:28	13%	3%	0.8%	84%
AA 2459 American Flight history →	JFK 08:14	SNA 11:01	14%	4%	0.8%	91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	JFK 10:28 → PDX 13:22AS 19	1h 26m Portland	PDX 14:48 → SNA 17:19AS 264	9h 51m	94%	80%
Alaska Details →	JFK 13:00 → SEA 16:19AS 23	2h 51m Seattle	SEA 19:10 → SNA 22:01AS 631	12h 01m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286	2h 31m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → SNA 12:31DL 329	9h 31m	99%	78%
American Details →	JFK 09:15 → PHX 11:22AA 1186	2h 51m Phoenix	PHX 14:13 → SNA 15:40AA 2463	9h 25m	100%	76%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:10 → ATL 13:43DL 1029	3h 47m Atlanta	ATL 17:30 → SNA 19:00DL 2012	10h 50m	98%	75%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:30 → LAS 14:01DL 807	4h 00m Las Vegas	LAS 18:01 → SNA 19:15DL 4179 · flown by SkyWest	10h 45m	100%	75%
Delta Details →	JFK 07:00 → SEA 10:14DL 699	2h 23m Seattle	SEA 12:37 → SNA 15:34DL 1001	11h 34m	99%	75%
American Details →	JFK 07:02 → PHX 09:18AA 2369	1h 47m Phoenix	PHX 11:05 → SNA 12:39AA 1656	8h 37m	93%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	JFK 07:00 → SEA 10:16AS 21	50m Seattle	SEA 11:06 → SNA 13:55AS 1357	9h 55m	66%	50%
Delta Details →	JFK 17:50 → ATL 20:13DL 2293	46m Atlanta	ATL 20:59 → SNA 22:25DL 826	7h 35m	52%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON