Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: American via Charlotte, leaving 07:59, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Charlotte Amalie on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte Amalie on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	JFK 07:59 → CLT 10:07AA 1444	2h 25m Charlotte	CLT 12:32 → STT 16:24AA 2004	8h 25m	95%	74%
Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286	1h 30m Atlanta	ATL 09:59 → STT 13:49DL 1899	7h 49m	95%	71%
American Details →	JFK 05:55 → MIA 09:12AA 655	53m Miami	MIA 10:05 → STT 13:02AA 943	7h 07m	82%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON