Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 2042 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–29%.

Safest bet that day DL 2042 JFK 07:05 → TPA 10:01 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest B6 2725 JFK 19:59 → TPA 23:14 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2042 Delta Flight history →	JFK 07:05	TPA 10:01	10%	3%	2.4%	88%
DL 2093 Delta Flight history →	JFK 14:30	TPA 17:41	17%	7%	1.2%	79%
DL 1636 Delta Flight history →	JFK 20:05	TPA 23:25	19%	7%	1.1%	76%
B6 225 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 10:44	TPA 13:45	24%	6%	2.0%	80%
B6 2725 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 19:59	TPA 23:14	29%	11%	2.0%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON