Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Valparaiso on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 59% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Valparaiso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Valparaiso is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286	1h 46m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → VPS 10:29DL 2048	5h 29m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	JFK 07:15 → MSP 09:25DL 2390	1h 10m Minneapolis	MSP 10:35 → VPS 13:13DL 2462	6h 58m	92%	82%
Delta Details →	JFK 08:40 → ATL 11:23DL 2227	2h 37m Atlanta	ATL 14:00 → VPS 14:11DL 2832	6h 31m	96%	82%
Delta Details →	JFK 13:35 → ATL 16:19DL 2342	2h 09m Atlanta	ATL 18:28 → VPS 18:42DL 2803	6h 07m	94%	81%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:10 → ATL 13:43DL 1029	2h 06m Atlanta	ATL 15:49 → VPS 16:05DL 2170	5h 55m	94%	78%
Delta Details →	JFK 17:50 → ATL 20:13DL 2293	2h 37m Atlanta	ATL 22:50 → VPS 23:03DL 3097	6h 13m	91%	74%
American Details →	JFK 18:06 → MIA 21:03AA 2603	2h 07m Miami	MIA 23:10 → VPS 23:59AA 4300 · flown by Envoy	6h 53m	90%	72%
American Details →	JFK 12:00 → CLT 14:09AA 493	2h 47m Charlotte	CLT 16:56 → VPS 17:49AA 5201 · flown by PSA	6h 49m	96%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	JFK 18:50 → MIA 22:22AA 1174	48m Miami	MIA 23:10 → VPS 23:59AA 4300 · flown by Envoy	6h 09m	59%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON