Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 12–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 73 JNU 07:36 → ANC 09:22 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AS 65 JNU 13:02 → ANC 14:48 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 73 Alaska Flight history →	JNU 07:36	ANC 09:22	12%	5%	2.3%	88%
AS 7006 Alaska	JNU 12:04	ANC 13:58	15%	6%	1.9%	no record
AS 67 Alaska Flight history →	JNU 21:10	ANC 22:56	17%	6%	1.8%	81%
AS 65 Alaska Flight history →	JNU 13:02	ANC 14:48	19%	5%	1.9%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON