Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · 25 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 2223 at 07:56 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 2223 KOA 07:56 → HNL 09:04 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1157 KOA 18:30 → HNL 19:17 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2223 Southwest	KOA 07:56	HNL 09:04	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 2222 Southwest	KOA 05:56	HNL 07:04	4%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 2224 Southwest	KOA 11:36	HNL 12:49	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 2225 Southwest	KOA 15:34	HNL 16:37	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 2226 Southwest	KOA 18:54	HNL 19:57	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
AS 1017 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 06:00	HNL 06:47	9%	2%	1.2%	94%
AS 1027 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 07:28	HNL 08:26	9%	2%	1.2%	87%
AS 9925 Alaska	KOA 07:13	HNL 08:02	11%	2%	1.1%	no record
AS 1037 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 08:48	HNL 09:46	14%	3%	1.2%	82%
AS 1057 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 10:28	HNL 11:26	19%	3%	1.1%	76%
AS 1167 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 19:08	HNL 20:06	19%	5%	1.0%	88%
AS 9726 Alaska	KOA 11:23	HNL 12:21	19%	3%	1.0%	no record
AS 1077 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 11:47	HNL 12:45	19%	3%	1.1%	78%
AS 1047 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 09:51	HNL 10:49	21%	3%	1.0%	74%
AS 1107 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 14:41	HNL 15:39	21%	5%	1.2%	76%
AS 1127 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 16:10	HNL 17:08	21%	5%	1.0%	85%
AS 1297 Alaska	KOA 13:27	HNL 14:25	22%	4%	1.0%	no record
AS 1087 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 12:12	HNL 13:10	22%	5%	1.1%	72%
AS 1117 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 15:20	HNL 16:18	22%	4%	1.1%	78%
AS 9727 Alaska	KOA 15:23	HNL 16:21	23%	4%	1.0%	no record
AS 1067 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 11:19	HNL 12:17	24%	4%	1.2%	67%
AS 1177 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 20:45	HNL 21:33	24%	5%	1.0%	89%worse than usual
AS 1137 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 17:02	HNL 17:49	25%	6%	1.2%	74%
AS 1147 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 17:45	HNL 18:32	26%	5%	1.0%	75%
AS 1157 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 18:30	HNL 19:17	27%	5%	1.0%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON