Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 20:45, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching Las Vegas on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2227 Southwest	KOA 20:29	LAS 05:01	7%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h ahead of Kailua/Kona). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	KOA 19:08 → HNL 20:06AS 1167	3h 14m Honolulu	HNL 23:20 → LAS 08:03 +1AS 808	9h 55m	100%	80%
Alaska Details →	KOA 06:00 → HNL 06:47AS 1017	1h 08m Honolulu	HNL 07:55 → LAS 16:39AS 806	7h 39m	95%	71%
United Details →	KOA 11:55 → SFO 20:03UA 1722	1h 12m San Francisco	SFO 21:15 → LAS 23:10UA 406	8h 15m	90%	70%
Alaska Details →	KOA 08:48 → HNL 09:46AS 1037	3h 39m Honolulu	HNL 13:25 → LAS 22:10AS 876	10h 22m	100%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON