Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AS 1029 at 08:24, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 1029 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 08:24	LIH 09:34	5%	1%	0.7%	94%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Lihue on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	KOA 06:00 → HNL 06:47AS 1017	2h 24m Honolulu	HNL 09:11 → LIH 10:01AS 1043	4h 01m	100%	85%
Alaska Details →	KOA 07:28 → HNL 08:26AS 1027	1h 24m Honolulu	HNL 09:50 → LIH 10:40AS 1053	3h 12m	98%	81%
Alaska Details →	KOA 14:41 → HNL 15:39AS 1107	3h 08m Honolulu	HNL 18:47 → LIH 19:37AS 1163	4h 56m	100%	78%
Alaska Details →	KOA 15:20 → HNL 16:18AS 1117	3h 16m Honolulu	HNL 19:34 → LIH 20:24AS 1173	5h 04m	99%	78%
Alaska Details →	KOA 17:02 → HNL 17:49AS 1137	3h 28m Honolulu	HNL 21:17 → LIH 22:07AS 1183	5h 05m	99%	77%
Alaska Details →	KOA 09:19 → OGG 09:55AS 1039	2h 21m Kahului	OGG 12:16 → LIH 13:06AS 1049	3h 47m	100%	74%
Alaska Details →	KOA 10:28 → HNL 11:26AS 1057	3h 52m Honolulu	HNL 15:18 → LIH 16:08AS 1113	5h 40m	100%	72%
Alaska Details →	KOA 09:51 → HNL 10:49AS 1047	3h 49m Honolulu	HNL 14:38 → LIH 15:28AS 1103	5h 37m	99%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	KOA 14:41 → HNL 15:39AS 1107	53m Honolulu	HNL 16:32 → LIH 17:22AS 1133	2h 41m	68%	49%
Alaska Details →	KOA 08:48 → HNL 09:46AS 1037	49m Honolulu	HNL 10:35 → LIH 11:25AS 1063	2h 37m	62%	49%
Alaska Details →	KOA 11:19 → HNL 12:17AS 1067	50m Honolulu	HNL 13:07 → LIH 13:57AS 1083	2h 38m	61%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON