Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 2229 at 13:31 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 2229 KOA 13:31 → OGG 14:29 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1259 KOA 13:52 → OGG 14:29 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2229 Southwest	KOA 13:31	OGG 14:29	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 1039 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 09:19	OGG 09:55	16%	3%	0.7%	92%
AS 1149 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 12:51	OGG 13:28	24%	4%	0.9%	83%
9X 504 Southern Airways Express	KOA 18:54	OGG 20:16	24%	6%	1.4%	no record
AS 1259 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 13:52	OGG 14:29	24%	4%	0.7%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON