Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Alaska via Kahului, leaving 09:19, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 253 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 11:58	PDX 20:35	12%	3%	0.7%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h ahead of Kailua/Kona). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	KOA 17:02 → HNL 17:49AS 1137	3h 55m Honolulu	HNL 21:44 → PDX 06:10 +1AS 879	10h 08m	99%	79%
Alaska Details →	KOA 08:24 → LIH 09:34AS 1029	2h 47m Lihue	LIH 12:21 → PDX 21:06AS 901	9h 42m	100%	78%
Alaska Details →	KOA 09:19 → OGG 09:55AS 1039	1h 20m Kahului	OGG 11:15 → PDX 19:36AS 890	7h 17m	94%	78%
Alaska Details →	KOA 08:48 → HNL 09:46AS 1037	2h 36m Honolulu	HNL 12:22 → PDX 20:50AS 814	9h 02m	100%	73%
Alaska Details →	KOA 06:00 → HNL 06:47AS 1017	51m Honolulu	HNL 07:38 → PDX 16:10AS 860	7h 10m	77%	64%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	KOA 11:55 → SFO 20:03UA 1722	47m San Francisco	SFO 20:50 → PDX 22:48UA 2413	7h 53m	75%	61%
Alaska Details →	KOA 10:28 → HNL 11:26AS 1057	56m Honolulu	HNL 12:22 → PDX 20:50AS 814	7h 22m	74%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON