Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Alaska via Lihue, leaving 08:24, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching San Diego on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 266 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 10:37	SAN 19:02	17%	4%	0.7%	77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h ahead of Kailua/Kona). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	KOA 08:24 → LIH 09:34AS 1029	1h 07m Lihue	LIH 10:41 → SAN 19:10AS 1646	7h 46m	96%	72%
Alaska Details →	KOA 17:45 → HNL 18:32AS 1147	3h 27m Honolulu	HNL 21:59 → SAN 06:27 +1AS 93	9h 42m	99%	72%
Alaska Details →	KOA 09:19 → OGG 09:55AS 1039	2h 27m Kahului	OGG 12:22 → SAN 20:43AS 203	8h 24m	100%	70%
United Details →	KOA 11:55 → SFO 20:03UA 1722	2h 46m San Francisco	SFO 22:49 → SAN 00:41 +1UA 1389	9h 46m	98%	69%
Alaska Details →	KOA 08:48 → HNL 09:46AS 1037	2h 53m Honolulu	HNL 12:39 → SAN 21:07AS 816	9h 19m	100%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON