Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 485 at 20:50 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–23%.

Safest bet that day DL 485 KOA 20:50 → SEA 05:26 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AS 735 KOA 11:57 → SEA 20:36 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 485 Delta Flight history →	KOA 20:50	SEA 05:26	12%	6%	1.0%	93%
AS 259 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 22:22	SEA 06:56	16%	6%	1.4%	91%
AS 735 Alaska	KOA 11:57	SEA 20:36	23%	7%	1.1%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	KOA 19:08 → HNL 20:06AS 1167	1h 26m Honolulu	HNL 21:32 → SEA 06:06 +1AS 854	7h 58m	95%	74%
Alaska Details →	KOA 08:48 → HNL 09:46AS 1037	1h 37m Honolulu	HNL 11:23 → SEA 19:54AS 267	8h 06m	99%	70%
Alaska Details →	KOA 11:47 → HNL 12:45AS 1077	1h 49m Honolulu	HNL 14:34 → SEA 23:04AS 627	8h 17m	96%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON