Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 19:08, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching San Jose on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h ahead of Kailua/Kona). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	KOA 19:08 → HNL 20:06AS 1167	3h 40m Honolulu	HNL 23:46 → SJC 07:55 +1AS 9677	9h 47m	100%	79%
Alaska Details →	KOA 09:19 → OGG 09:55AS 1039	3h 27m Kahului	OGG 13:22 → SJC 21:30AS 954	9h 11m	100%	76%
Alaska Details →	KOA 07:28 → HNL 08:26AS 1027	3h 16m Honolulu	HNL 11:42 → SJC 20:00AS 839	9h 32m	100%	75%
Alaska Details →	KOA 10:37 → SAN 19:02AS 266	2h 14m San Diego	SAN 21:16 → SJC 22:45AS 1308	9h 08m	96%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	KOA 09:51 → HNL 10:49AS 1047	53m Honolulu	HNL 11:42 → SJC 20:00AS 839	7h 09m	70%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON