Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 09:51, is the safest bet: 67% chance of reaching Sacramento on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 44% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 287 Southwest	KOA 09:31	SMF 18:11	7%	3%	0.4%	no record
AS 843 Alaska	KOA 13:47	SMF 22:01	15%	5%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h ahead of Kailua/Kona). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	KOA 10:37 → SAN 19:02AS 266	1h 37m San Diego	SAN 20:39 → SMF 22:16AS 428	8h 39m	94%	72%
Alaska Details →	KOA 09:19 → OGG 09:55AS 1039	3h 58m Kahului	OGG 13:53 → SMF 22:01AS 960	9h 42m	100%	71%
Alaska Details →	KOA 08:48 → HNL 09:46AS 1037	2h 26m Honolulu	HNL 12:12 → SMF 20:23AS 820	8h 35m	100%	70%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	KOA 10:28 → HNL 11:26AS 1057	46m Honolulu	HNL 12:12 → SMF 20:23AS 820	6h 55m	44%	31%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON