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Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 99 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 761 at 06:43 is the safest bet, 1% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 761 SNA 06:43 → SJC 08:31 · 1% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 520 BUR 09:24 → SFO 10:48 · 41% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
WN 761 Southwest SNA 06:43 SJC 08:31 1% 1% 0.7% no record
WN 142 Southwest LAX 05:47 OAK 07:19 2% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 505 Southwest ONT 06:10 OAK 07:35 2% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 1182 Southwest ONT 07:32 SJC 09:01 2% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 915 Southwest BUR 06:59 SJC 08:36 2% 1% 1.3% no record
WN 1031 Southwest BUR 07:04 OAK 08:39 3% 1% 1.4% no record
WN 1076 Southwest LGB 07:36 OAK 09:09 3% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 2575 Southwest LGB 07:56 SJC 09:26 4% 1% 0.5% no record
WN 3996 Southwest SNA 08:38 OAK 10:14 4% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 4785 Southwest LAX 07:12 SJC 08:36 4% 1% 0.7% no record
WN 4009 Southwest SNA 09:28 SJC 11:01 4% 2% 0.7% no record
WN 920 Southwest BUR 10:34 SJC 12:06 4% 2% 1.2% no record
WN 473 Southwest BUR 08:29 OAK 09:59 5% 2% 1.3% no record
WN 480 Southwest BUR 11:59 SJC 13:31 6% 3% 1.2% no record
WN 3242 Southwest ONT 11:27 SJC 12:51 6% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 1594 Southwest LGB 11:01 SJC 12:31 6% 2% 0.5% no record
WN 884 Southwest BUR 11:24 OAK 13:04 6% 3% 1.3% no record
WN 813 Southwest BUR 15:04 SJC 16:36 7% 3% 1.2% no record
WN 185 Southwest BUR 16:59 SJC 18:31 8% 4% 1.1% no record
WN 3282 Southwest ONT 17:42 SJC 19:11 8% 4% 0.5% no record
WN 4445 Southwest ONT 14:17 OAK 15:44 9% 4% 0.6% no record
WN 4014 Southwest SNA 17:28 SJC 19:01 9% 4% 0.7% no record
WN 882 Southwest LAX 09:52 SJC 11:16 9% 2% 0.7% no record
WN 4012 Southwest SNA 13:28 SJC 15:01 9% 3% 0.7% no record
OO 3849 SkyWest LAX 14:18 SJC 15:44 10% 5% 0.5% no record
WN 3296 Southwest SNA 11:13 OAK 12:49 10% 3% 0.6% no record
WN 3805 Southwest SNA 15:48 SJC 17:21 10% 4% 0.7% no record
WN 1166 Southwest LGB 13:41 OAK 15:09 10% 3% 0.6% no record
WN 422 Southwest LGB 15:56 SJC 17:26 10% 3% 0.5% no record
WN 1371 Southwest BUR 13:29 OAK 14:59 10% 3% 1.2% no record
DL 3883 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAX 18:00 SJC 19:15 10% 4% 0.5% 88%
DL 3842 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAX 12:57 SJC 14:12 10% 4% 0.5% 90%
WN 249 Southwest BUR 17:59 OAK 19:29 11% 5% 1.0% no record
DL 1380 Delta LAX 09:18 SJC 10:38 11% 3% 1.0% no record
WN 2503 Southwest LAX 07:02 SFO 08:35 12% 4% 0.6% no record
WN 2103 Southwest LGB 17:06 OAK 18:39 12% 5% 0.6% no record
WN 3999 Southwest SNA 16:58 OAK 18:34 12% 5% 0.6% no record
WN 1146 Southwest BUR 07:19 SFO 08:55 12% 4% 2.1% no record
WN 4458 Southwest LAX 14:02 SJC 15:26 14% 4% 0.6% no record
WN 2511 Southwest LAX 16:45 SJC 18:03 14% 5% 0.6% no record
WN 910 Southwest BUR 15:17 OAK 16:32 15% 3% 1.2% no record
WN 2494 Southwest LAX 11:27 OAK 12:59 15% 3% 0.6% no record
DL 1420 Delta LAX 20:44 SJC 22:05 15% 6% 1.0% no record
DL 1359 Delta LAX 16:09 SJC 17:27 15% 6% 1.0% no record
WN 1048 Southwest LAX 17:07 OAK 18:39 15% 5% 0.5% no record
DL 1421 Delta Flight history → LAX 07:00 SFO 08:21 15% 3% 0.8% 94%
WN 2309 Southwest SNA 14:33 OAK 16:09 16% 5% 0.6% no record
WN 270 Southwest LAX 14:42 OAK 16:14 18% 4% 0.6% no record
OO 5483 SkyWest ONT 16:07 SFO 18:05 18% 12% 0.9% no record
UA 653 United SNA 07:15 SFO 08:43 19% 7% 0.7% no record
UA 1320 United SNA 15:00 SFO 16:43 20% 12% 0.7% no record
UA 1047 United LAX 22:34 SFO 00:04 21% 9% 0.5% no record
AS 3494 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SNA 16:38 SFO 18:14 21% 10% 0.9% 72%
UA 5351 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → SNA 16:12 SFO 17:48 22% 12% 0.9% 67%
OO 6274 SkyWest LAX 07:29 SFO 09:13 22% 8% 0.8% no record
DL 689 Delta LAX 12:02 SFO 13:32 22% 7% 0.8% no record
AA 6260 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAX 20:38 SFO 22:14 22% 9% 0.8% 63%
AA 6277 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAX 09:52 SFO 11:36 23% 9% 0.8% 63%
AA 3138 American Flight history → LAX 17:31 SFO 19:08 23% 12% 0.6% 69%
AS 736 Alaska SNA 19:29 SFO 20:51 23% 11% 0.8% no record
UA 5339 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → SNA 19:27 SFO 21:05 23% 12% 1.2% 50%
UA 469 United Flight history → LAX 13:24 SFO 14:58 23% 9% 0.6% 77%
OO 5616 SkyWest SNA 09:46 SFO 11:36 23% 12% 0.9% no record
AS 3492 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SNA 18:03 SFO 19:39 24% 12% 1.0% 62%
WN 2505 Southwest LAX 12:57 SFO 14:30 24% 10% 0.6% no record
AA 1110 American LAX 11:02 SFO 12:42 25% 10% 0.6% no record
UA 1387 United ONT 08:01 SFO 09:33 25% 8% 0.6% no record
UA 2199 United LAX 10:57 SFO 12:35 25% 10% 0.6% no record
OO 6276 SkyWest LAX 14:10 SFO 15:45 25% 10% 0.7% no record
WN 1313 Southwest BUR 16:59 SFO 18:35 25% 12% 1.5% no record
UA 1245 United Flight history → LAX 11:46 SFO 13:17 25% 9% 0.6% 79%
OO 5330 SkyWest ONT 11:17 SFO 12:57 25% 13% 0.8% no record
UA 1375 United Flight history → ONT 13:50 SFO 15:15 25% 13% 0.6% 57%
AS 361 Alaska LAX 17:23 SFO 18:44 26% 9% 0.6% no record
UA 2111 United SNA 18:10 SFO 19:39 26% 14% 0.8% no record
AS 3251 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SNA 08:08 SFO 09:44 26% 9% 1.0% 93%worse than usual
WN 197 Southwest LAX 16:22 SFO 17:55 26% 14% 0.5% no record
UA 1372 United Flight history → LAX 07:30 SFO 09:06 27% 7% 0.6% 49%
OO 3039 SkyWest SNA 12:06 SFO 13:42 27% 11% 1.0% no record
UA 2019 United Flight history → LAX 16:14 SFO 17:42 27% 13% 0.6% 68%
AS 91 Alaska LAX 15:33 SFO 16:54 28% 9% 0.7% no record
UA 1066 United BUR 16:12 SFO 17:55 28% 14% 0.8% no record
UA 1508 United Flight history → BUR 18:42 SFO 20:10 28% 15% 0.8% 41%
UA 2056 United Flight history → LAX 21:11 SFO 22:33 29% 10% 0.5% 61%
UA 2837 United LAX 18:55 SFO 20:17 29% 13% 0.5% no record
DL 2197 Delta Flight history → LAX 18:08 SFO 19:32 30% 10% 0.8% 45%
AS 309 Alaska LAX 12:55 SFO 14:16 30% 7% 0.7% no record
OO 3055 SkyWest SNA 14:04 SFO 15:40 30% 14% 1.0% no record
UA 1905 United LAX 09:43 SFO 11:20 31% 11% 0.6% no record
DL 1693 Delta LAX 20:50 SFO 22:14 31% 9% 0.8% no record
UA 1195 United Flight history → LAX 20:05 SFO 21:33 33% 13% 0.5% 28%
UA 2386 United Flight history → BUR 11:12 SFO 12:40 33% 11% 0.8% 52%
F9 2857 Frontier Flight history → LAX 09:00 SFO 10:39 34% 11% 2.4% 50%
OO 3054 SkyWest SNA 09:27 SFO 11:03 36% 14% 0.9% no record
UA 1453 United Flight history → BUR 13:45 SFO 15:13 36% 13% 0.8% 66%
DL 2267 Delta Flight history → LAX 14:25 SFO 15:44 37% 10% 0.8% 50%
AS 1411 Alaska LAX 14:42 SFO 15:56 38% 11% 0.7% no record
DL 1715 Delta Flight history → LAX 09:20 SFO 10:42 41% 9% 0.8% 52%
UA 520 United BUR 09:24 SFO 10:48 41% 12% 0.9% no record
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON