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Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 40 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1827 at 06:17 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–34%.

Safest bet that day WN 1827 ONT 06:17 → DAL 11:25 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1208 BUR 12:31 → DFW 17:50 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.

WN 1827 Southwest ONT 06:17 DAL 11:25 4% 1% 1.0% no record
WN 1230 Southwest SNA 07:28 DAL 12:30 5% 1% 0.6% no record
AA 1412 American Flight history → ONT 05:34 DFW 10:41 8% 3% 1.4% 89%
AA 1382 American Flight history → SNA 06:46 DFW 12:02 8% 4% 1.4% 89%
WN 1312 Southwest LGB 08:26 DAL 13:35 8% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 1930 Southwest LAX 04:57 DAL 10:20 8% 2% 0.7% no record
WN 2466 Southwest LAX 00:52 DAL 06:02 9% 2% 0.6% no record
AA 2811 American Flight history → LAX 06:00 DFW 11:15 11% 4% 1.0% 87%
WN 856 Southwest BUR 10:04 DAL 15:20 11% 2% 1.0% no record
AA 3170 American SNA 08:02 DFW 13:17 12% 5% 1.4% no record
AA 2599 American Flight history → BUR 07:01 DFW 12:19 13% 5% 1.8% 92%
AA 2746 American Flight history → LAX 07:00 DFW 12:18 13% 5% 1.0% 87%
AA 2893 American Flight history → ONT 08:24 DFW 13:36 14% 4% 1.3% 87%
DL 521 Delta Flight history → LAX 09:40 DFW 14:53 16% 5% 0.7% 88%
WN 2052 Southwest LAX 09:27 DAL 14:40 17% 3% 0.7% no record
AA 1686 American Flight history → SNA 09:13 DFW 14:24 17% 5% 1.2% 88%
AA 2490 American Flight history → LAX 00:13 DFW 05:04 18% 6% 0.9% 92%
AA 971 American Flight history → LAX 00:31 DFW 05:41 19% 7% 1.0% 85%
F9 4690 Frontier Flight history → ONT 18:31 DFW 23:51 19% 13% 4.2% 76%
AA 2766 American Flight history → LAX 08:03 DFW 13:13 20% 6% 1.0% 84%
AA 1820 American Flight history → ONT 10:23 DFW 15:33 20% 5% 1.6% 76%
AA 2114 American Flight history → SNA 10:36 DFW 15:47 20% 7% 1.7% 78%
AA 504 American LAX 08:41 DFW 13:51 22% 7% 1.1% no record
AA 2956 American Flight history → ONT 12:35 DFW 17:49 23% 8% 1.9% 71%
AA 2635 American Flight history → ONT 14:20 DFW 19:36 23% 10% 2.0% 73%
AA 1047 American Flight history → LAX 09:01 DFW 14:14 23% 8% 1.0% 65%
DL 420 Delta Flight history → LAX 17:00 DFW 22:12 24% 14% 3.2% 82%
F9 4964 Frontier Flight history → LAX 01:45 DFW 07:05 25% 7% 1.1% 75%
F9 2564 Frontier Flight history → LAX 16:14 DFW 21:38 26% 13% 4.2% 72%
AA 1154 American LAX 10:43 DFW 15:56 28% 9% 1.2% no record
AA 1504 American Flight history → LAX 18:31 DFW 23:43 30% 12% 2.6% 80%
AA 1760 American LAX 11:53 DFW 17:04 30% 11% 1.2% no record
AA 1933 American SNA 13:41 DFW 19:00 30% 11% 2.2% no record
AA 1657 American Flight history → LAX 15:11 DFW 20:28 31% 12% 1.3% 57%
AA 500 American LAX 13:55 DFW 19:14 31% 11% 1.3% no record
AA 2465 American Flight history → SNA 14:30 DFW 19:47 32% 12% 2.1% 79%worse than usual
AA 1939 American SNA 12:11 DFW 17:09 32% 10% 2.0% no record
AA 2659 American Flight history → SNA 16:36 DFW 21:50 33% 18% 5.1% 80%worse than usual
AA 2024 American Flight history → LAX 17:36 DFW 22:50 34% 13% 4.7% 54%
AA 1208 American Flight history → BUR 12:31 DFW 17:50 37% 12% 2.2% 73%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON