Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 22 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 654 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–14%.

Safest bet that day UA 654 LAX 05:45 → IAH 11:12 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 427 LAX 11:22 → HOU 16:42 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 654 United Flight history →	LAX 05:45	IAH 11:12	5%	2%	0.7%	96%
UA 2267 United	ONT 05:55	IAH 11:19	5%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 700 United Flight history →	SNA 07:45	IAH 13:07	7%	3%	0.6%	93%
WN 4128 Southwest	LAX 04:58	HOU 10:13	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2480 Southwest	LAX 00:37	HOU 06:07	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 1416 United Flight history →	LAX 08:00	IAH 13:30	10%	4%	0.7%	91%
UA 491 United Flight history →	LAX 00:51	IAH 06:12	10%	3%	0.6%	92%
DL 1287 Delta Flight history →	LAX 01:04	IAH 06:30	11%	4%	0.5%	85%
F9 1756 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 06:07	IAH 11:28	11%	5%	0.9%	70%
UA 1680 United Flight history →	LAX 19:22	IAH 00:51	11%	5%	0.7%	87%
WN 4799 Southwest	LGB 11:36	HOU 16:52	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 277 United Flight history →	LAX 10:10	IAH 15:40	12%	5%	0.7%	88%
UA 1084 United	LAX 13:07	IAH 18:36	13%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 643 United Flight history →	SNA 14:53	IAH 20:15	13%	5%	0.6%	87%
OO 4998 SkyWest	LAX 14:27	IAH 19:56	13%	6%	0.6%	no record
DL 1143 Delta Flight history →	LAX 09:05	IAH 14:32	14%	4%	0.5%	86%
UA 2765 United	LAX 15:17	IAH 20:46	14%	7%	0.7%	no record
UA 2377 United Flight history →	LAX 16:36	IAH 22:05	14%	6%	0.7%	87%
UA 2044 United Flight history →	SNA 12:00	IAH 17:30	15%	5%	0.6%	74%
UA 1477 United	LAX 11:51	IAH 17:21	15%	7%	0.7%	no record
WN 1296 Southwest	ONT 11:47	HOU 17:02	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 427 Southwest	LAX 11:22	HOU 16:42	24%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON