Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 42 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 2186 at 21:15 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; morning flights run 7–23%.

Safest bet that day UA 2186 SNA 21:15 → EWR 05:33 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest UA 1981 LAX 11:15 → EWR 19:30 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2186 United Flight history →	SNA 21:15	EWR 05:33	6%	3%	1.0%	90%
UA 1403 United Flight history →	LAX 06:00	EWR 14:37	7%	3%	0.9%	92%
UA 2743 United Flight history →	LAX 07:00	EWR 15:37	8%	4%	0.9%	94%
DL 556 Delta Flight history →	SNA 21:00	JFK 05:27	9%	3%	1.8%	89%
DL 979 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:00	JFK 15:39	9%	4%	0.8%	90%
UA 661 United Flight history →	SNA 06:45	EWR 15:21	10%	4%	1.0%	91%
AA 118 American Flight history →	LAX 06:00	JFK 14:37	11%	4%	0.9%	85%
DL 960 Delta Flight history →	LAX 21:00	JFK 05:16	11%	4%	0.8%	86%
AA 2 American Flight history →	LAX 07:00	JFK 15:39	12%	4%	0.9%	86%
AA 10 American Flight history →	LAX 21:27	JFK 06:03	12%	5%	1.0%	85%
UA 2397 United Flight history →	LAX 21:00	EWR 05:18	14%	4%	0.8%	88%
B6 524 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 07:27	JFK 15:59	14%	5%	1.1%	80%
DL 938 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:40	JFK 15:55	14%	4%	0.8%	79%
AA 30 American Flight history →	LAX 22:23	JFK 07:00	16%	5%	1.2%	70%
DL 991 Delta Flight history →	LAX 15:10	JFK 23:40	16%	6%	0.7%	78%
UA 3900 United	LAX 00:28	EWR 08:34	16%	4%	1.0%	no record
UA 576 United	LAX 21:50	EWR 05:46	17%	5%	0.8%	no record
AS 286 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 07:03	EWR 15:02	17%	5%	1.3%	90%
DL 915 Delta Flight history →	LAX 00:15	JFK 08:09	17%	3%	0.7%	86%
UA 2096 United Flight history →	LAX 08:20	EWR 16:45	18%	7%	0.9%	83%
B6 1524 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 22:25	JFK 07:00	18%	7%	1.3%	83%
UA 2303 United Flight history →	LAX 23:15	EWR 07:30	18%	5%	0.8%	77%
B6 1574 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 20:33	EWR 05:00	19%	7%	1.0%	83%
AA 307 American Flight history →	LAX 08:30	JFK 17:09	20%	7%	0.9%	76%
AA 28 American Flight history →	LAX 15:15	JFK 23:54	20%	7%	0.9%	79%
DL 958 Delta Flight history →	LAX 10:02	JFK 18:36	21%	6%	0.8%	83%
B6 1224 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 00:57	JFK 09:22	22%	6%	1.1%	68%
DL 939 Delta Flight history →	LAX 11:30	JFK 20:10	22%	7%	0.7%	73%
B6 454 JetBlue Flight history →	ONT 23:18	JFK 07:39	22%	6%	1.0%	72%
AA 4 American Flight history →	LAX 13:00	JFK 21:34	23%	9%	0.8%	76%
AA 32 American Flight history →	LAX 11:05	JFK 19:46	23%	9%	0.8%	74%
DL 934 Delta Flight history →	LAX 08:59	JFK 17:02	23%	5%	0.8%	89%worse than usual
AA 238 American Flight history →	LAX 10:11	JFK 18:52	24%	9%	0.9%	71%
UA 1950 United Flight history →	LAX 13:39	EWR 22:15	24%	10%	0.8%	61%
B6 324 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 12:34	JFK 20:51	26%	8%	1.1%	77%
AA 274 American Flight history →	LAX 11:55	JFK 20:36	27%	9%	0.8%	60%
AA 2459 American Flight history →	SNA 11:43	JFK 20:21	28%	9%	0.8%	73%
B6 359 JetBlue Flight history →	BUR 21:25	JFK 05:59	28%	9%	2.2%	72%
UA 1855 United Flight history →	LAX 13:25	EWR 21:43	28%	11%	0.8%	62%
UA 2127 United Flight history →	LAX 10:20	EWR 19:04	29%	14%	0.9%	72%
B6 1874 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 10:35	EWR 19:07	31%	12%	1.0%	67%
UA 1981 United Flight history →	LAX 11:15	EWR 19:30	33%	11%	0.8%	72%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LAX 05:30 → DTW 12:56DL 2399	1h 16m Detroit	DTW 14:12 → EWR 15:49DL 2573	7h 19m	97%	71%
Delta Details →	LAX 09:45 → DTW 17:08DL 494	55m Detroit	DTW 18:03 → JFK 20:04DL 1316	7h 19m	81%	67%
American Details →	ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:30AA 1194	1h 04m Phoenix	PHX 08:34 → EWR 16:35AA 1327	7h 24m	90%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON