Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 482 at 07:35 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–31%.

Safest bet that day DL 482 LAX 07:35 → MCO 15:35 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AA 1024 LAX 10:51 → MCO 18:56 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 482 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:35	MCO 15:35	17%	4%	1.6%	84%
UA 1730 United Flight history →	LAX 00:03	MCO 07:41	17%	3%	4.2%	90%
WN 2487 Southwest	LAX 22:14	MCO 05:59	19%	5%	1.0%	no record
DL 718 Delta Flight history →	LAX 16:05	MCO 00:07	20%	5%	1.1%	77%
UA 1621 United Flight history →	LAX 10:28	MCO 18:28	22%	6%	1.3%	89%worse than usual
DL 867 Delta Flight history →	LAX 10:28	MCO 18:42	30%	6%	1.4%	69%
F9 4146 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 23:00	MCO 07:13	31%	11%	2.7%	52%
AA 1024 American Flight history →	LAX 10:51	MCO 18:56	32%	9%	1.5%	69%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	LAX 00:51 → IAH 06:12UA 491	1h 08m Houston	IAH 07:20 → MCO 10:51UA 2245	7h 00m	92%	77%
United Details →	SNA 12:00 → IAH 17:30UA 2044	56m Houston	IAH 18:26 → MCO 21:58UA 2451	6h 58m	82%	63%
American Details →	LAX 06:00 → DFW 11:15AA 2811	1h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:17 → MCO 16:04AA 1615	7h 04m	89%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON