Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 15 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 349 at 05:13 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–13%.

Safest bet that day WN 349 LAX 05:13 → BWI 13:10 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 6 LAX 11:48 → DCA 20:00 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 349 Southwest	LAX 05:13	BWI 13:10	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 688 United	SNA 08:19	IAD 16:17	7%	4%	0.9%	no record
UA 2282 United Flight history →	LAX 20:57	IAD 04:55	9%	3%	0.6%	89%
UA 2372 United Flight history →	LAX 22:20	IAD 06:16	10%	3%	0.6%	100%
UA 418 United Flight history →	LAX 23:23	IAD 07:17	10%	3%	0.6%	93%
DL 392 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:30	DCA 15:32	11%	3%	0.7%	81%
UA 2268 United Flight history →	LAX 08:15	IAD 16:26	13%	3%	0.6%	84%
WN 1246 Southwest	LAX 21:44	BWI 05:50	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 2667 United Flight history →	LAX 10:39	IAD 18:48	13%	4%	0.6%	90%
AA 3283 American Flight history →	LAX 08:23	DCA 16:29	14%	5%	0.7%	83%
UA 444 United	LAX 15:00	IAD 22:52	14%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 1093 United Flight history →	LAX 09:33	BWI 17:43	14%	5%	0.6%	90%
UA 1164 United Flight history →	LAX 13:24	IAD 21:32	14%	5%	0.6%	94%
AA 591 American Flight history →	LAX 12:26	DCA 20:29	20%	6%	0.7%	78%
AS 6 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 11:48	DCA 20:00	21%	5%	0.8%	78%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446	1h 26m Denver	DEN 09:46 → BWI 15:17UA 1362	7h 17m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	SNA 08:00 → MSP 13:39DL 2185	58m Minneapolis	MSP 14:37 → DCA 18:09DL 2963	7h 09m	89%	79%
Delta Details →	BUR 09:45 → SLC 12:43DL 3681 · flown by SkyWest	1h 02m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:45 → IAD 19:44DL 847	6h 59m	93%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON