Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 2231 at 07:36 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 2231 LAS 07:36 → ABQ 10:15 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 5034 LAS 19:24 → ABQ 21:58 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2231 Southwest	LAS 07:36	ABQ 10:15	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1353 Southwest	LAS 10:21	ABQ 13:00	12%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2120 Southwest	LAS 15:56	ABQ 18:35	28%	6%	0.8%	no record
WN 3812 Southwest	LAS 18:19	ABQ 20:53	32%	11%	3.1%	no record
WN 5034 Southwest	LAS 19:24	ABQ 21:58	33%	10%	1.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON