Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 391 at 07:46, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 391 Southwest	LAS 07:46	AMA 11:56	6%	1%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Amarillo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Amarillo is 2 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	LAS 06:00 → IAH 11:11UA 2608	1h 14m Houston	IAH 12:25 → AMA 14:21UA 4817 · flown by CommuteAir	6h 21m	98%	81%
American Details →	LAS 06:08 → DFW 11:00AA 2932	2h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:19 → AMA 14:37AA 3383 · flown by Envoy	6h 29m	98%	79%
United Details →	LAS 09:37 → DEN 12:41UA 1315	1h 48m Denver	DEN 14:29 → AMA 17:00UA 5233 · flown by SkyWest	5h 23m	96%	75%
American Details →	LAS 07:13 → DFW 12:06AA 617	2h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:32 → AMA 15:50AA 3613 · flown by Envoy	6h 37m	96%	74%
American Details →	LAS 09:47 → DFW 14:38AA 2797	2h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:23 → AMA 18:42AA 3789 · flown by Envoy	6h 55m	100%	73%
American Details →	LAS 12:25 → DFW 17:20AA 1482	2h 47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:07 → AMA 21:28AA 3607 · flown by Envoy	7h 03m	97%	70%
American Details →	LAS 10:11 → DFW 15:08AA 1584	3h 49m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:57 → AMA 20:15AA 3990 · flown by Envoy	8h 04m	97%	68%
American Details →	LAS 14:02 → DFW 19:03AA 777	2h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:19 → AMA 22:40AA 2265	6h 38m	90%	44%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	LAS 11:33 → DFW 16:28AA 1494	55m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:23 → AMA 18:42AA 3789 · flown by Envoy	5h 09m	65%	47%
American Details →	LAS 14:02 → DFW 19:03AA 777	1h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:07 → AMA 21:28AA 3607 · flown by Envoy	5h 26m	66%	47%
American Details →	LAS 15:23 → DFW 20:24AA 2376	55m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:19 → AMA 22:40AA 2265	5h 17m	57%	28%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON