Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:19, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 1 h behind Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAS 06:19 → MSP 11:22DL 1282	2h 56m Minneapolis	MSP 14:18 → ANC 16:49DL 411	11h 30m	98%	83%
Alaska Details →	LAS 08:19 → PDX 10:39AS 596	3h 52m Portland	PDX 14:31 → ANC 17:35AS 1406	10h 16m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	LAS 09:36 → MSP 14:42DL 2261	3h 28m Minneapolis	MSP 18:10 → ANC 21:00DL 377	12h 24m	100%	80%
United Details →	LAS 13:36 → DEN 16:40UA 1323	2h 26m Denver	DEN 19:06 → ANC 22:50UA 280	10h 14m	95%	74%
Delta Details →	LAS 06:00 → ATL 13:00DL 755	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → ANC 18:48DL 416	13h 48m	97%	74%
Delta Details →	LAS 11:09 → SEA 14:00DL 2922	3h 35m Seattle	SEA 17:35 → ANC 20:23DL 2367	10h 14m	99%	74%
Alaska Details →	LAS 14:08 → PDX 16:29AS 756	1h 29m Portland	PDX 17:58 → ANC 20:40AS 1455	7h 32m	91%	73%
United Details →	LAS 07:00 → ORD 12:48UA 664	3h 31m Chicago	ORD 16:19 → ANC 19:53UA 461	13h 53m	98%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	LAS 18:08 → PDX 20:27AS 779	57m Portland	PDX 21:24 → ANC 00:32 +1AS 2192 · flown by Horizon	7h 24m	71%	57%
Alaska Details →	LAS 09:41 → SEA 12:12AS 676	1h 03m Seattle	SEA 13:15 → ANC 15:57AS 1381	7h 16m	74%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON