Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 15 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 755 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–26%.

Safest bet that day DL 755 LAS 06:00 → ATL 13:00 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 2428 LAS 23:50 → ATL 06:59 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 755 Delta Flight history →	LAS 06:00	ATL 13:00	7%	2%	0.5%	94%
DL 417 Delta Flight history →	LAS 21:58	ATL 05:04	11%	4%	0.7%	98%
DL 677 Delta Flight history →	LAS 07:05	ATL 14:05	12%	3%	0.5%	93%
DL 787 Delta	LAS 22:54	ATL 06:00	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 2237 Southwest	LAS 00:09	ATL 07:01	13%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 259 Southwest	LAS 07:36	ATL 14:28	13%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 857 Delta Flight history →	LAS 00:33	ATL 07:18	14%	3%	0.6%	74%
DL 927 Delta Flight history →	LAS 08:26	ATL 15:25	14%	4%	0.5%	90%
DL 777 Delta Flight history →	LAS 10:41	ATL 17:45	18%	5%	0.9%	82%
DL 748 Delta Flight history →	LAS 11:41	ATL 18:47	19%	5%	1.3%	88%
DL 591 Delta Flight history →	LAS 14:38	ATL 21:49	24%	9%	0.8%	80%
DL 466 Delta Flight history →	LAS 13:18	ATL 20:33	24%	7%	0.9%	84%
F9 1116 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 09:34	ATL 16:50	25%	8%	0.9%	81%
DL 8778 Delta	LAS 16:05	ATL 23:02	25%	9%	0.7%	no record
F9 2428 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 23:50	ATL 06:59	26%	9%	1.0%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON