Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 00:37, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Appleton on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Appleton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Appleton is 2 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAS 00:37 → MSP 05:46DL 2834	3h 46m Minneapolis	MSP 09:32 → ATW 10:47DL 4951 · flown by Endeavor	8h 10m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	LAS 11:27 → DTW 18:26DL 334	2h 43m Detroit	DTW 21:09 → ATW 21:37DL 4159 · flown by SkyWest	8h 10m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	LAS 05:50 → DTW 12:44DL 864	3h 26m Detroit	DTW 16:10 → ATW 16:38DL 4166 · flown by SkyWest	8h 48m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	LAS 10:41 → ATL 17:45DL 777	3h 31m Atlanta	ATL 21:16 → ATW 22:31DL 2945	9h 50m	98%	81%
United Details →	LAS 12:40 → ORD 18:18UA 314	3h 42m Chicago	ORD 22:00 → ATW 23:23UA 4495 · flown by GoJet	8h 43m	99%	79%
American Details →	LAS 12:25 → DFW 17:20AA 1482	2h 47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:07 → ATW 22:41AA 4188 · flown by Envoy	8h 16m	97%	75%
United Details →	LAS 07:00 → ORD 12:48UA 664	1h 07m Chicago	ORD 13:55 → ATW 15:09UA 4479 · flown by GoJet	6h 09m	90%	71%
United Details →	LAS 13:36 → DEN 16:40UA 1323	1h 10m Denver	DEN 17:50 → ATW 21:13UA 2089	5h 37m	84%	65%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	LAS 14:02 → DFW 19:03AA 777	1h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:07 → ATW 22:41AA 4188 · flown by Envoy	6h 39m	66%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON