Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 2238 at 06:17 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–37%.

Safest bet that day WN 2238 LAS 06:17 → AUS 11:01 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 2444 LAS 17:26 → AUS 22:15 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2238 Southwest	LAS 06:17	AUS 11:01	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3062 Southwest	LAS 08:06	AUS 12:54	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
F9 4684 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 10:10	AUS 15:09	18%	7%	0.9%	77%
WN 2240 Southwest	LAS 12:56	AUS 17:44	22%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 1309 Southwest	LAS 16:16	AUS 21:04	29%	9%	1.0%	no record
WN 4357 Southwest	LAS 17:56	AUS 22:44	33%	11%	1.0%	no record
DL 2444 Delta	LAS 17:26	AUS 22:15	37%	13%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON