Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 2245 at 06:16 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 2245 LAS 06:16 → BNA 11:53 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4427 LAS 17:46 → BNA 23:23 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2245 Southwest	LAS 06:16	BNA 11:53	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 646 Southwest	LAS 08:51	BNA 14:28	13%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 2251 Southwest	LAS 23:22	BNA 04:59	16%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 2180 Southwest	LAS 12:31	BNA 18:08	23%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 2248 Southwest	LAS 15:16	BNA 20:53	24%	8%	0.7%	no record
SY 3001 Sun Country	LAS 12:38	BNA 18:01	24%	7%	1.6%	no record
WN 4427 Southwest	LAS 17:46	BNA 23:23	30%	9%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON