Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 2806 at 07:46 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 2806 LAS 07:46 → BOI 10:41 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3565 LAS 19:44 → BOI 22:34 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 2806 Southwest	LAS 07:46	BOI 10:41	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 1828 Southwest	LAS 13:51	BOI 16:46	24%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 3565 Southwest	LAS 19:44	BOI 22:34	33%	9%	1.7%	no record
AS 2182 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	LAS 17:52	BOI 20:43	29%	12%	3.8%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON