Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 22–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day B6 178 LAS 00:00 → BOS 07:46 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest DL 1020 LAS 11:25 → BOS 19:36 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 178 JetBlue Flight history →	LAS 00:00	BOS 07:46	22%	4%	0.8%	84%
B6 778 JetBlue Flight history →	LAS 23:48	BOS 07:55	22%	9%	1.0%	73%
B6 1578 JetBlue Flight history →	LAS 10:39	BOS 18:44	23%	10%	0.7%	62%
B6 1178 JetBlue Flight history →	LAS 12:12	BOS 20:34	24%	11%	0.8%	68%
DL 1020 Delta	LAS 11:25	BOS 19:36	25%	6%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LAS 00:37 → MSP 05:46DL 2834	1h 14m Minneapolis	MSP 07:00 → BOS 10:47DL 2649	7h 10m	95%	87%
United Details →	LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596	1h 08m Denver	DEN 09:40 → BOS 15:44UA 1232	7h 14m	97%	81%
United Details →	LAS 00:09 → IAD 07:39UA 284	56m Dulles	IAD 08:35 → BOS 10:20UA 641	7h 11m	89%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON