Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 271 at 06:36 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–29%.

Safest bet that day WN 271 LAS 06:36 → BUR 07:56 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4431 LAS 19:34 → BUR 20:48 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 271 Southwest	LAS 06:36	BUR 07:56	3%	1%	1.2%	no record
WN 210 Southwest	LAS 09:16	BUR 10:36	8%	2%	1.1%	no record
WN 1706 Southwest	LAS 11:21	BUR 12:51	13%	3%	1.1%	no record
F9 4107 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 11:11	BUR 12:34	15%	6%	1.7%	89%
WN 3101 Southwest	LAS 16:31	BUR 18:01	22%	9%	1.6%	no record
WN 1249 Southwest	LAS 14:31	BUR 15:51	23%	7%	1.1%	no record
WN 3649 Southwest	LAS 17:41	BUR 19:01	29%	11%	1.6%	no record
WN 4431 Southwest	LAS 19:34	BUR 20:48	29%	12%	2.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON