Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 2262 at 06:16 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–20%.

Safest bet that day WN 2262 LAS 06:16 → BWI 13:50 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 241 LAS 11:51 → BWI 19:25 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2262 Southwest	LAS 06:16	BWI 13:50	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2264 Southwest	LAS 22:10	BWI 05:44	13%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 241 Southwest	LAS 11:51	BWI 19:25	20%	4%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596	1h 14m Denver	DEN 09:46 → BWI 15:17UA 1362	6h 47m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	LAS 06:00 → ATL 13:00DL 755	59m Atlanta	ATL 13:59 → BWI 15:49DL 2799	6h 49m	92%	80%
Delta Details →	LAS 13:31 → MSP 18:42DL 2238	1h 03m Minneapolis	MSP 19:45 → BWI 23:13DL 2918	6h 42m	86%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON