Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 2266 at 17:44, with a 25% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2266 Southwest	LAS 17:44	BZN 20:50	25%	10%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 1 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAS 10:00 → SLC 12:29DL 1698	3h 22m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:51 → BZN 17:14DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest	6h 14m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	LAS 06:00 → SLC 08:19DL 2674	2h 26m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → BZN 12:05DL 1971	5h 05m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	LAS 11:42 → MSP 16:45DL 2262	1h 25m Minneapolis	MSP 18:10 → BZN 19:44DL 2954	7h 02m	97%	88%
United Details →	LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596	3h 14m Denver	DEN 11:46 → BZN 13:38UA 741	7h 08m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	LAS 06:10 → SEA 08:45DL 2844	3h 05m Seattle	SEA 11:50 → BZN 14:45DL 4104 · flown by SkyWest	7h 35m	97%	81%
United Details →	LAS 13:36 → DEN 16:40UA 1323	2h 45m Denver	DEN 19:25 → BZN 21:14UA 1347	6h 38m	97%	81%
United Details →	LAS 07:15 → SFO 08:52UA 2356	3h 08m San Francisco	SFO 12:00 → BZN 15:21UA 562	7h 06m	100%	76%
United Details →	LAS 09:37 → DEN 12:41UA 1315	49m Denver	DEN 13:30 → BZN 15:18UA 513	4h 41m	86%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON