Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 14–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 3239 LAS 09:56 → CLE 16:59 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1822 LAS 23:20 → CLE 06:34 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3239 Southwest	LAS 09:56	CLE 16:59	14%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 2235 United	LAS 13:02	CLE 20:21	20%	10%	0.9%	no record
F9 1822 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 23:20	CLE 06:34	21%	6%	1.2%	63%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	LAS 00:11 → ORD 05:44AA 3077	54m Chicago	ORD 06:38 → CLE 09:11AA 6363 · flown by SkyWest	6h 00m	76%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON