Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2957 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 2957 LAS 07:00 → CLT 14:35 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 2470 LAS 13:13 → CLT 20:41 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2957 American Flight history →	LAS 07:00	CLT 14:35	14%	4%	0.7%	92%
AA 2751 American Flight history →	LAS 23:45	CLT 07:04	15%	4%	1.4%	91%
AA 2330 American	LAS 00:12	CLT 07:17	17%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 8 American	LAS 08:03	CLT 15:27	21%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 2981 American Flight history →	LAS 11:09	CLT 18:36	27%	6%	1.0%	93%worse than usual
AA 2470 American Flight history →	LAS 13:13	CLT 20:41	33%	8%	1.2%	84%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LAS 10:41 → ATL 17:45DL 777	1h 14m Atlanta	ATL 18:59 → CLT 20:07DL 2132	6h 26m	87%	66%
American Details →	LAS 06:08 → DFW 11:00AA 2932	55m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:55 → CLT 15:36AA 1696	6h 28m	90%	63%
Delta Details →	LAS 07:05 → ATL 14:05DL 677	55m Atlanta	ATL 15:00 → CLT 16:17DL 3031	6h 12m	83%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON