tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Columbus on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2897 Southwest LAS 08:16 CMH 15:15 10% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 4750 Southwest LAS 16:56 CMH 23:55 30% 9% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbus on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Columbus is 3 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAS 00:37 → MSP 05:46DL 2834 1h 24m Minneapolis MSP 07:10 → CMH 10:02DL 2772 6h 25m 96% 90%
DeltaDetails → LAS 09:59 → DTW 16:55DL 470 2h 59m Detroit DTW 19:54 → CMH 21:02DL 5838 · flown by Republic 8h 03m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:19 → MSP 11:22DL 1282 1h 23m Minneapolis MSP 12:45 → CMH 15:42DL 2550 6h 23m 96% 88%
DeltaDetails → LAS 11:42 → MSP 16:45DL 2262 3h 30m Minneapolis MSP 20:15 → CMH 23:07DL 1356 8h 25m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:13 → EWR 08:14UA 406 2h 20m Newark EWR 10:34 → CMH 12:29UA 3638 · flown by Republic 9h 16m 97% 86%
UnitedDetails → LAS 06:00 → IAH 11:11UA 2608 1h 04m Houston IAH 12:15 → CMH 16:05UA 4072 · flown by Mesa 7h 05m 96% 85%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 1h 03m Denver DEN 09:35 → CMH 14:28UA 480 5h 58m 96% 85%
AmericanDetails → LAS 00:11 → ORD 05:44AA 3077 1h 41m Chicago ORD 07:25 → CMH 09:52AA 3414 · flown by Envoy 6h 41m 91% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → LAS 14:25 → ORD 20:23UA 706 1h 07m Chicago ORD 21:30 → CMH 23:59UA 1492 6h 34m 75% 56%
UnitedDetails → LAS 09:56 → EWR 18:00UA 1784 55m Newark EWR 18:55 → CMH 20:57UA 3481 · flown by Republic 8h 01m 71% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON