tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: DL 2794 at 22:55 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 2794 Delta Flight history → LAS 22:55 CVG 05:42 9% 3% 0.7% 92%
F9 3412 Frontier Flight history → LAS 00:07 CVG 07:03 26% 6% 1.1% 74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hebron is 3 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAS 00:37 → MSP 05:46DL 2834 1h 28m Minneapolis MSP 07:14 → CVG 10:03DL 954 6h 26m 96% 90%
DeltaDetails → LAS 11:42 → MSP 16:45DL 2262 3h 35m Minneapolis MSP 20:20 → CVG 23:11DL 1469 8h 29m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → LAS 00:33 → ATL 07:18DL 857 3h 57m Atlanta ATL 11:15 → CVG 12:38DL 3149 9h 05m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:53 → IAH 05:53UA 2009 1h 37m Houston IAH 07:30 → CVG 10:59UA 6312 · flown by Mesa 7h 06m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:00 → SLC 08:19DL 2674 1h 21m Salt Lake City SLC 09:40 → CVG 15:03DL 2273 6h 03m 97% 86%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 1h 08m Denver DEN 09:40 → CVG 14:28UA 1978 5h 58m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:00 → ATL 13:00DL 755 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 15:15 → CVG 16:41DL 1008 7h 41m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → LAS 07:05 → ATL 14:05DL 677 3h 29m Atlanta ATL 17:34 → CVG 19:03DL 1858 8h 58m 97% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
FrontierDetails → LAS 00:59 → DFW 05:43F9 1650 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 06:35 → CVG 10:10F9 4280 6h 11m 72% 62%
UnitedDetails → LAS 14:25 → ORD 20:23UA 706 1h 00m Chicago ORD 21:23 → CVG 23:36UA 1223 6h 11m 67% 45%
AmericanDetails → LAS 14:02 → DFW 19:03AA 777 58m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:01 → CVG 23:32AA 1266 6h 30m 61% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON