Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1524 at 06:19 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 36%.

Safest bet that day WN 1524 LAS 06:19 → DAL 11:01 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4415 LAS 18:39 → DAL 23:21 · 36% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1524 Southwest	LAS 06:19	DAL 11:01	3%	1%	1.0%	no record
WN 572 Southwest	LAS 08:30	DAL 13:10	7%	2%	1.0%	no record
WN 2800 Southwest	LAS 11:31	DAL 16:25	17%	4%	1.1%	no record
WN 744 Southwest	LAS 14:41	DAL 19:35	26%	8%	1.6%	no record
WN 1396 Southwest	LAS 17:36	DAL 22:30	36%	14%	5.0%	no record
WN 4415 Southwest	LAS 18:39	DAL 23:21	36%	14%	6.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON