tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Washington on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 55% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 1525 American LAS 11:42 DCA 19:46 20% 6% 0.8% no record
WN 1856 Southwest LAS 12:41 DCA 20:24 21% 6% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 3 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:53 → IAH 05:53UA 2009 1h 52m Houston IAH 07:45 → DCA 11:40UA 512 7h 47m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → LAS 00:37 → MSP 05:46DL 2834 1h 50m Minneapolis MSP 07:36 → DCA 11:00DL 2958 7h 23m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:19 → MSP 11:22DL 1282 3h 15m Minneapolis MSP 14:37 → DCA 18:09DL 2963 8h 50m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → LAS 00:33 → ATL 07:18DL 857 2h 22m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → DCA 11:27DL 380 7h 54m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → LAS 11:42 → MSP 16:45DL 2262 3h 45m Minneapolis MSP 20:30 → DCA 23:58DL 2961 9h 16m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:00 → SLC 08:19DL 2674 2h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 10:29 → DCA 16:35DL 820 7h 35m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 58m Denver DEN 09:30 → DCA 14:59UA 789 6h 29m 96% 84%
DeltaDetails → LAS 11:27 → DTW 18:26DL 334 2h 57m Detroit DTW 21:23 → DCA 23:03DL 2073 8h 36m 99% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → LAS 14:02 → DFW 19:03AA 777 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:00 → DCA 23:59AA 2077 6h 57m 60% 41%
AmericanDetails → LAS 11:33 → DFW 16:28AA 1494 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:15 → DCA 21:31AA 472 6h 58m 55% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON