Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 18 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1665 at 06:11 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–29%.

Safest bet that day WN 1665 LAS 06:11 → DEN 09:13 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1152 LAS 15:11 → DEN 18:13 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1665 Southwest	LAS 06:11	DEN 09:13	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
UA 596 United Flight history →	LAS 05:30	DEN 08:32	4%	2%	0.6%	98%
WN 2279 Southwest	LAS 07:11	DEN 10:13	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 1315 United Flight history →	LAS 09:37	DEN 12:41	9%	3%	0.6%	93%
WN 757 Southwest	LAS 10:36	DEN 13:38	10%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 2285 Southwest	LAS 00:01	DEN 02:47	11%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 2723 Southwest	LAS 00:05	DEN 02:57	12%	2%	0.7%	no record
F9 2350 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 07:43	DEN 10:46	12%	4%	0.8%	88%
WN 862 Southwest	LAS 11:51	DEN 14:53	15%	3%	0.7%	no record
F9 1766 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 09:35	DEN 12:43	16%	5%	0.8%	79%
F9 4612 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 20:37	DEN 23:43	20%	7%	1.8%	73%
UA 2108 United Flight history →	LAS 16:25	DEN 19:30	20%	9%	0.7%	73%
UA 1323 United Flight history →	LAS 13:36	DEN 16:40	21%	8%	0.6%	77%
UA 1291 United Flight history →	LAS 18:09	DEN 20:59	22%	10%	1.6%	77%
WN 2282 Southwest	LAS 13:15	DEN 16:07	26%	4%	0.8%	no record
F9 3540 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 14:53	DEN 18:00	28%	9%	1.0%	66%
WN 1741 Southwest	LAS 18:39	DEN 21:30	29%	9%	2.2%	no record
WN 1152 Southwest	LAS 15:11	DEN 18:13	29%	6%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON