Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2932 at 06:08 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 37–42%.

Safest bet that day AA 2932 LAS 06:08 → DFW 11:00 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 3286 LAS 18:56 → DFW 23:41 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2932 American Flight history →	LAS 06:08	DFW 11:00	8%	3%	1.1%	94%
AA 654 American Flight history →	LAS 07:02	DFW 11:55	13%	5%	1.2%	86%
F9 3886 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 08:43	DFW 13:29	13%	5%	1.2%	92%
AA 617 American Flight history →	LAS 07:13	DFW 12:06	13%	5%	1.2%	89%
AA 1908 American Flight history →	LAS 09:03	DFW 13:54	17%	5%	1.2%	87%
AA 2797 American Flight history →	LAS 09:47	DFW 14:38	19%	6%	1.2%	94%worse than usual
AA 1584 American Flight history →	LAS 10:11	DFW 15:08	20%	6%	1.2%	87%
F9 1650 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 00:59	DFW 05:43	23%	7%	1.3%	77%
AA 1494 American Flight history →	LAS 11:33	DFW 16:28	27%	8%	1.4%	78%
AA 1482 American Flight history →	LAS 12:25	DFW 17:20	30%	10%	1.6%	78%
AA 2376 American Flight history →	LAS 15:23	DFW 20:24	36%	14%	2.4%	66%
AA 777 American Flight history →	LAS 14:02	DFW 19:03	37%	15%	2.2%	73%
F9 1948 Frontier	LAS 18:00	DFW 22:56	37%	16%	7.3%	no record
AA 3286 American Flight history →	LAS 18:56	DFW 23:41	42%	19%	5.5%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON